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Patrick Everson
FOX Sports Betting Analyst
The best game in the NFL Week 13 odds market did not live up to its billing, with the San Francisco 49ers absolutely trucking the Philadelphia Eagles. On this week’s oddsboard, the best game also features the Eagles, this time against the Dallas Cowboys.
Philly is once again around a field-goal underdog, but this time they’re on the road in prime-time on Sunday night. So we’ll see if the second time is the charm for a good game.
Plus, betting has begun in earnest on College Football Playoff semifinal odds. And let’s just say Alabama is becoming a potentially big problem for sportsbooks.
Let’s get to it, as oddsmakers and sharp bettors dive into this week’s NFL and college football betting nuggets.
Sunday Night Fight
Philadelphia is still trying to get the license plate number of the semi that ran it over last weekend. The Eagles lost to San Fran 42-19, giving up 14 points in each of the second, third and fourth quarters.
So Philly is now 10-2 straight up (SU) and 7-3-2 against the spread (ATS). Dallas (9-3 SU/10-4 ATS) could forge a tie atop the NFC East. At The SuperBook, the Cowboys opened as 3-point favorites, and senior risk supervisor Casey Degnon said the line has spent the week toggling between Dallas -3 (-120) and -3.5 (even).
“It’s all Cowboys right now. Dallas is getting a lot more money and a lot more tickets to this point of the week,” Degnon said Wednesday night. “If the Eagles had looked better last week, I’m sure it would look a little different. But Dallas is scoring a lot of points, and the Eagles just lost by a bunch at home.”
Degnon added that he expects to see some public betting support for Philadelphia, but that The SuperBook will likely need the Eagles come Sunday night.
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NFL Sharp Side
Professional bettor Randy McKay is looking toward another NFC battle, out in the West Division. And he’s going against surging San Fran firing on Seattle +11 in a 4:05 p.m. ET Sunday matchup on FOX and the FOX Sports app.
“San Francisco is coming off a big revenge win last week vs. the Eagles,” McKay said. “Now, the Niners are playing a division rival with more rest. We are seeing an overinflated line here with the recency bias, so ‘Hawks +11.”
As McKay alluded to, Seattle has a couple more days rest entering this road trip, having played the Week 13 Thursday night game. In that contest at Dallas, the Seahawks were a handful for the Cowboys but lost 41-35.
McKay is also backing the New York Giants +7 (-120) at home against Green Bay on Monday night.
“It’s another recency-bias game here. You have Green Bay coming off its two best games vs. Detroit and Kansas City,” he said.
NFL Rocks on FOX
FOX and the FOX Sports App also have a game that just might be sneaky good. The Baltimore Ravens (9-3 SU/8-4 ATS) host the Los Angeles Rams (6-6 SU/6-5-1 ATS) at 1 p.m. ET Sunday.
Everyone knows that Baltimore is solid and right in the thick of the Super Bowl odds chase. L.A. is on a three-game win streak, but this will certainly be a tough test, with the Rams 7-point underdogs at The SuperBook.
“We haven’t moved off 7 all week,” Degnon said. “Ticket count is about even, but there’s more money on the Ravens right now. You can also start to see the moneyline parlay/teaser liability forming on the Ravens. By kickoff, we’ll need the Rams to win this game outright.”
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Back To School
Meanwhile, on the college gridiron, the College Football Playoff is set. No. 1 Michigan meets No. 4 Alabama in the Rose Bowl, followed by No. 2 Washington taking on No. 3 Texas in the Sugar Bowl, both on New Year’s Day.
The news so far is that bettors love the Crimson Tide. PointsBet’s Max Meyer noted that early on, there is more moneyline cash on Alabama — wagering on the Crimson Tide to beat Michigan outright — than there is spread and moneyline dollars on Michigan, Washington and Texas combined.
Said PointsBet trader Wyatt Satre: “Alabama moneyline has received by far the most action of any CFP bet, although all of that has been public money. I think it’s mostly recency bias, given Alabama’s convincing win over Georgia. Michigan hasn’t faced a QB as athletic as Jalen Milroe this season, so the market could have questions there.
“This spread should hover around a pick, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Alabama closes as a small favorite.”
College Sharp Side
There’s only one FBS game this weekend, a continuation of one of the all-time great rivalries. Army faces Navy on Saturday at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass., for the 124th meeting between these archrivals.
Army is a 3-point favorite. College football betting expert Paul Stone rates these teams virtually even at most positions. But he likes Army minus the points, based on the health and rugged running style of quarterback Bryson Daily.
The 6-foot, 218-pounder out of Texas has been a workhorse for the Black Knights in recent weeks, carrying the ball 77 times for 347 yards during their three-game winning streak. Daily had 36 rushes for 170 yards in Army’s 23-3 upset of Air Force a month ago.
Stone expects a similar workload for Daily on Saturday.
“Daily is like a linebacker with the ball in his hands,” Stone said. “He’ll take contact, he’ll initiate contact. He’s a bruiser, a real tough guy.”
Stone is also already involved in one of the CFP semifinals. He bet Washington +4.5 against Texas.
“Texas doesn’t have any glaring weaknesses, but is somewhat vulnerable in the back of its defense,” Stone said. “That obviously plays to Washington’s strength, which is its passing game.”
Texas’ secondary will be shorthanded in the first half vs. Washington. True freshman safety Derek Williams will miss the first two quarters, after being ejected for targeting in the second half of the Longhorns’ 49-21 win over Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game.
More NFL Numbers
The Jacksonville Jaguars-Cleveland Browns tilt is a lot more interesting due to Trevor Lawrence’s uncertain status. The Jags QB suffered a high ankle sprain in the Week 13 Monday night game, a 34-31 overtime home loss to Cincinnati.
Lawrence hasn’t been ruled out vs. Cleveland, but oddsmakers don’t see him playing Sunday. The SuperBook opened the Jags -3 vs. the Browns, and the line was still Jags -2.5 before Jacksonville’s Monday night setback. Following the Jaguars’ loss, The SuperBook flipped the number to Cleveland -2.5, and midweek, it’s Browns -3.
“I think Lawrence is worth more than 4 points and less than 7 points. Five to six points is about right,” Degnon said. “We took a sharp bet on Cleveland -2.5 to push us to -3. I think that’s betting against Lawrence playing. And I don’t think he’s playing. If he is ruled out, I think we’ll see more Cleveland bets.”
Degnon offered insight on one more key Sunday matchup: Buffalo Bills vs. Kansas City Chiefs. Host Kansas City opened -3 Sunday night, dipped to -2.5 Monday, then went to -2 and -1.5 Wednesday.
“Ticket count is about 3/1 in favor of the Chiefs, but money is pretty similar right now. I’m surprised the Chiefs don’t have more money.”
That said, Degnon expects the book to need Buffalo, likely outright, as there’ll be no shortage of public Chiefs action in moneyline parlays.
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I Like Big Bets and I Cannot Lie
There’s not much to report yet in the way of major wagers on NFL Week 14 odds or in the college football bowl odds market. But we’ve got a doozy of a leftover from Monday Night Football.
The Jaguars closed as 10-point home favorites against the Bengals. A Caesars Sports customer took the seemingly safe route for such a big favorite, betting $113,200 on Jacksonville moneyline -480. Meaning all the Jags had to do was win the game, and the bettor would profit $23,583, for a total payout of $136,783.
But Bengals QB Jake Browning — replacing the injured Joe Burrow — had the game of his life, completing 32 of 37 passes for 354 yards and a touchdown, with no interceptions. The aforementioned Lawrence was solid, too, going 22 of 29 for 258 yards and two TDs, while also rushing for another score. But he left with just under six minutes remaining due to the high ankle sprain.
And Jacksonville went on to lose 34-31 in overtime. Oof.
Just another reason why you should always keep your bets reasonable. There are no sure things in NFL betting. Enjoy the upcoming football-wagering weekend responsibly.
Patrick Everson is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and senior reporter for VegasInsider.com. He is a distinguished journalist in the national sports betting space. He’s based in Las Vegas, where he enjoys golfing in 110-degree heat. Follow him on Twitter: @PatrickE_Vegas
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